PETALING JAYA: Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) gas supply curtailment issues are likely to continue as the key Bekok field is expected only to commence operations by another month.

The expected delay is paired with another negative surprise TNB might not get back the full 150-200 million standard cu ft per day (mmscfd) as it has to share the capacity with the industrial sector.

ECM Libra Investment Research said the resumption of gas supply from the key Bekok field was delayed again by another month.

“Gas production in Petronas Bekok C gas platform was supposed to be back online by mid-June 2011, but TNB guided in its third-quarter ended May 31 analyst briefing that it will only be ready by end-August.

“Now, it has been pushed back by around a month to some time in September,” said ECM Libra in its note yesterday.

Meanwhile, TA Research said TNB had indicated that even if the entire 100 mmscfd supply from Bekok C (when operational) was diverted to the power sector, daily supply would still be below the 1,100 mmscfd needed to achieve the break-even point.

“TNB estimated that for financial year 2012, electricity demand will grow by 4%, primarily on the thesis that Government will execute big-ticket projects under the Economic Transformation Programme initiatives.

“But, we are taking a more modest ground with demand growth assumption of 2.6% (3.4% previously), in line with our house view of softening economic activities ahead,” said TA Research.

ECM Libra said the consensus view that the power sector would be getting back the full 150 to 200 mmscfd from this Bekok C field was wrong, as the research house understood that this would be shared equally among the industrial sector as well as the power sector, at about 75 mmscfd each.

However, ECM Libra indicated that there was a chance that gas sales to Singapore might be re-routed to Malaysia, which would be a positive for TNB.

“TNB is suggesting to Petronas to re-route 150 mmscfd of gas sales to Singapore, and instead be used locally for the power sector. This is a long shot as it will mean Petronas giving up the sale of gas at a higher price.

“However, if it materialises, any gas shortages from the Bekok field and any unplanned plant maintenance will be offset by this new gas supply,” it said.

In view of this development, both research houses expected Tenaga to post another quarterly loss in its fourth-quarter results ended Aug 31, 2011.

The Bekok C gas platform, located some 200km off Terengganu, caught fire during a scheduled shutdown on Dec 14 last year disrupting some 150 mmscfd of gas supply.