THE latest development in the Indonesian banking scene has turned out to be an ironical twist of fate for Maybank, which used to be branded as the latecomer that bought too much and at too high a price.

Analyst reports are surfacing that Maybank, with its current low earnings exposure from its Bank Internasional Indonesia (BII) operations, may survive the storm better.

Amidst the rumblings that Indonesia may introduce an ownership cap on its banks, ECM Libra has pointed out that Maybank's limited earnings exposure from its Indonesia operations (currently at 6%), makes it more attractive than CIMB which has a much higher exposure to Indonesia.

This is like a breath of fresh air for Maybank which has been getting “darts” and criticisms for its hefty RM8.6bil investment in 2008 for a 97.5% stake in BII.

In terms of timing, Maybank had lost out to CIMB which went into Bank Niaga as early as 2002 and merged Niaga with Bank Lippo in 2008. It had also lost out to CIMB in terms of purchase price CIMB paid 1.45 times for its 51% stake in Bank Niaga while Maybank had to fork out 4.7 times book value for BII.

In terms of branches, BII has 344 which is about half of the 676 branches CIMB Niaga has.

Alas! By the stroke of a single potential change in the rules, the winner apparently has become the “loser.”

“We believe that the potential imposition of a 50% foreign cap on CIMB Niaga would likely restrict the upside potential of its shares, until such concern is being addressed by the central bank of Indonesia.

“For the first half of 2011, CIMB Niaga contributed 29% of the group's pre-tax profit,” said ECM Libra in its recent note.

Should CIMB be disheartened by this?

Being an early mover, it would have already reaped a lot of the advantages. Well-known for its strategic vision, CIMB is not likely to rest on its laurels but will probably scout for other opportunities.

Not easily beaten down, it is also likely to use its creativity in coming up with other options and surprises.

As it stands, net interest margins at CIMB Niaga have bottomed out, and are set for recovery, according to analysts.

In case Maybank is gloating by now, it has to sit up and deal with the current low returns to investment, of only 2.6%, from BII.

The fact that it had adopted an aggressive loans growth strategy of 24% for BII implies that plans are underway for a higher contribution from the Indonesian operations.

In case there is a new ruling on ownership cap which affects both groups, some of their plans would obviously have to be changed or adjusted.

What is clear is that as both groups move into challenging times in Indonesia's regulatory landscape, a lot of strategising and creativity will be demanded on a potentially shrinking pie.