KUALA LUMPUR: AIRASIA BHD [ AIRASIA  1.440  0.020 (1.408%) ]'s second-quarter (2Q09) core net profit is anticipated to nearly triple to RM96.1 million from RM30 million a year earlier as the low-cost carrier managed to maintain a commendable load factor, said ECM Libra Investment Bank Bhd.

It expects the airline's revenue to increase to RM706.1 million in 2Q from RM535.1 million previously.

The research outfit estimates AirAsia's net profit to be RM261.9 million in the first half of the financial year ending Dec 31, 2009 and RM598.3 million for the full year. It expects the year-end holiday season to boost the airline's full-year profit.

According to Bloomberg, the market consensus on AirAsia's FY09 earnings is RM492.22 million compared with a net loss of RM471.7 million in FY08.

AirAsia is expected to release its second-quarter results on Wednesday.

ECM Libra, however, points out that the airline's profit would be lower on a quarterly basis against RM165.8 million in 1Q09 as a result of lower fares to attract sales.

The research firm said that although load factor would be 5.1% higher quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) at 74.8% in 2Q09, revenue yield would decline 15% q-o-q to 17.4-sen/revenue per passenger per km (RPK) as a result of lower fares.

ECM Libra also expects cost per available seat km (CASK) to rise 9% to 9.4 sen due to a 20.8% higher jet fuel price. In 2Q08, when fuel jet price was much higher, CASK was 11.49 sen.

ECM Libra maintained its buy call on AirAsia with a target price of RM1.90. The counter closed at RM1.42 today.

In view of the impending 20% share placement later this year, the research outfit has tweaked its earnings forecast lower. But, it reckons the impact will be marginally offset by savings from the deferred delivery of eight aircraft in 2010 and 2014.

The research unit said its forecast earnings for AirAsia from FY09 to FY11 have been reduced by between 7.2% and 17.8%.